Pretty much.
I don't see Kingdom making that call. Kingdom seems to be happier than they've ever been and that is saying a lot. Even though we haven't seen Oceanside yet, my guess is they don't have the power to make that call. They were barely a settlement. More of a small group that worked with the settlements. Sanctuary definitely didn't make that call because it appears to be defunct now and I'm guessing whatever caused this happened after The Sanctuary fell because as you can see there are Saviors living in Alexandria now. I'm not even talking about the whole lock down thing (unless the 2 things are connected) but if you aren't working with the other settlements why would you invite them to live with you so I'm guessing this is after The Sanctuary fell. They may not have immediately stopped working after Rick "died" but they slowly got more and more distant until they stopped helping and seeing each other all together unless people actively went out of their way to visit each other but nothing official.
So It's pretty much down to Alexandria or Hilltop.
And with Jesus/Tara running Hilltop at the moment and not Maggie I don't know why Hilltop would turn on Alexandria. Tara's friends live in Alexandria and Jesus is too nice and as we've seen he is still hanging with Aaron. So I feel like it was probably Michonne's call unless Michonne doesn't even know that Tara & Jesus are running Hilltop because it's been so long and Maggie made that call but I don't think that would be the case either because Lauren isn't really around to tell that story this season.
And as I said earlier, Michonne is a cunt. Out of all the people with any power at all she is the only one so far we've seen have an attitude change. Jesus & Ezekiel seem pretty much the same.
But we also don't know if Alexandria is no longer working with The Kingdom. Maybe Kingdom and Alexandria are still getting along but don't see each other as much because they are too far away from each other and have no cars. It could just be an issue between Alexandria and Hilltop and my guess is the only thing that I could see it being is Michonne being mad at Hilltop & Daryl for what happened to Rick. I mean, Michonne is fucking nuts right now. Still talking to Rick after all these years so its very possible that she just never let it go.
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